THE CONFIRMING POLL – AT 7:22 P.M. ET:  A recent poll, ironically by a polling organization that tilts Democratic, reported that President Obama would lose the 2012 election (if held today) against any Republican.  Now the respected Quinnipiac poll confirms the findings, and extends them:

President Obama's standing with American voters is so low that the latest Quinnipiac University poll indicates Obama would lose an election to "an unnamed Republican" -- meaning any GOP opponent -- by 39 to 36 percent.

The poll shows Obama's job approval hitting a new low, 44 percent approval to 48 percent disapproval. That is the president's worst net score ever, according to Quinnipiac.

The most drastic news for the president politically: His approval with the critical independent voters is dismal.

By a stunning 52 percent to 38 percent, independent voters disapprove of Obama. And by 37 to 27 percent, independents say they would vote for a Republican contender in 2012.

Overall, by a 48 percent to 40 percent margin, American voters say that President Obama does not deserve to be reelected in 2012.

While the Obama administration has time to turn around its low approval ratings before its next election, the poll is likely to sound alarm bells on Capitol Hill where many members of Congress will be up for reelection in November. Midterm elections tend to be a referendum on the party in power.

Voters apparently have a "pox on both their houses" mentality when it comes to Congress, giving both Republican and Democratic members very low marks. But that may be little consolation to Democrats on the ballot in November, because respondents said by a 43 to 38 percent margin that they would vote for a generic Republican over a generic Democrat for Congress.

COMMENT:  If Republicans, as we begin the main election campaign after Labor Day, can come up with a public program, a new Contract with America, it could ignite discontented voters even further and create the conditions for a historic transfer of power.

And I hope the GOP concentrates more attention on the Senate.  Recent statements by some Republican senators suggest that they have given up on recapturing the Senate, and would be content with getting close.  Well, there's no prize for close.  We need a majority to block reckless Supreme Court nominees.  Elena Kagan, a fine woman but a troublesome nominee, is about to put on the robes, and all because the GOP doesn't have the power to stop her.  Yes, we want to take back the House.  But the Senate is even more critical.

July 21, 2010